I previously looked at how the Royals could create the 1985 World Championship ballclub by looking at the modern equivalent of that team's hitters. Today, I'll show the modern equivalents of the pitching staff.
George and Sabes are excited about The Process
The Rotation
1985 Bret Saberhagen 20-6 2.87 ERA 235 IP 158 K 145 ERA+ 6.7 WAR
2009 Felix Hernandez 19-5 2.49 ERA 238 IP 217 K 174 ERA+ 6.9 WAR
Zack seems like the obvious comparison since physically they seem so similar – great athletes, pinpoint control, mid-90s fastball, terrific off-speed stuff. But when Zack was 21, he was enduring one of the most miserable seasons in Royals history, while when Sabes was 21, he was on "Good Morning America" with his World Series MVP trophy. Felix seems more appropriate for having terrific success at such a young age, although he hopes to avoid the same injury problems that plagued Sabes.
1985 Charlie Leibrandt 17-9 2.69 ERA 237 IP 108 K 155 ERA+ 6.3 WAR
2009 Cliff Lee 14-13 3.22 ERA 231 IP 181 K 131 ERA+ 6.6 WAR
Both were lefties who did not throw particularly hard, but could eat up innings. Both saw their careers in jeopardy around age 26-27 following a demotion to the minors. And both found renewed success once they began trusting their defense and becoming more of a groundball pitcher.
1985 Danny Jackson 14-12 3.42 ERA 208 IP 114 K 122 ERA+ 3.6 WAR
2009 John Danks 13-11 3.77 ERA 200 IP 149 K 123 ERA+ 2.9 WAR
Danks was 24, Jackson was 23. Both are lefties. Both were fairly promising young pitchers. If you take the ratio of strikeouts per inning in 2009 (0.76) and divide it by the strikeouts per innings in 1985 (0.58) and multiply it by Jackson’s strikeout total (114) you get 149 – exactly Danks’ total. Weird.
1985 Bud Black 10-15 4.33 ERA 205 IP 122 K 96 ERA+ 1.6 WAR
2009 Joe Saunders 16-7 4.60 ERA 186 IP 101 K 98 ERA+ 1.2 WAR
Both were lefties that did not strike out many (Black actually has a higher K/9 ratio of 5.3 to Saunders’ 4.9). Both had enjoyed very good seasons prior to this one – Black posted a 17-10 3.12 ERA in 1984, while Saunders posted a 17-7 3.41 ERA in 2008. Black would soon become a free agent bust with the San Francisco Giants. I would not at all be surprised to see some team overpay for Saunders.
1985 Mark Gubicza 14-10 4.06 ERA 177 IP 99 K 102 ERA+ 2.1 WAR
2009 Johnny Cueto 11-11 4.41 ERA 171 IP 132 K 97 ERA+ 1.6 WAR
Goobie was 22, Cueto was 23. When you adjust for strikeout ratios, they are nearly identical. Gubicza would become a two-time All-Star, a twenty-game winner with 131 career victories.
The Bullpen
1985 Dan Quisenberry 8-9 2.37 ERA 129 IP 54 K 175 ERA+ 4.1WAR
2009 Michael Wuertz 6-1 2.63 ERA 78 IP 102 K 167 ERA+ 2.4 WAR
Quite frankly there is no Dan Quisenberry. The days of three-inning "firemen" relievers has been replaced by the one-inning "closer.’ There is no submariner succeeding with a miniscule 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings with pinpoint control, throwing in excess of 120 innings per year. Quiz’s 4.1 WAR greatly exceeds what any reliever did in 2009, doubling even the WAR of Mariano Rivera (2.0). Michael Wuertz is perhaps the closest equivalent, but even he is a far cry from what Quiz could do. Wuertz strikes out way more than Quiz, and also walks more. But they are both at their best when they’re getting ground balls, and Wuertz was one of the most valuable relievers in baseball last year.
1985 Joe Beckwith 1-5 4.07 ERA 95 IP 80 K 102 ERA+ 0.5 WAR
2009 Scott Linebrink 3-7 4.66 ERA 56 IP 55 K 100 ERA+ 0.2 WAR
Both were early 30s relievers that their clubs had overpaid for (Royals sent three minor leaguers to the Dodgers for Beckwith, the White Sox paid $19 over four years for Linebrink). Both were perfectly mediocre relievers.
1985 Mike Jones 3-3 4.78 ERA 64 IP 32 K 87 ERA+ -0.4 WAR
2009 Jensen Lewis 2-4 4.61 ERA 66 IP 62 K 91 ERA+ -0.3 WAR
Both were young, former high round picks (Jones was a first rounder, Lewis a third rounder), who struggled to stay in the big leagues as relievers. Jones would never pitch in the big leagues after the 1985 season.
1985 Mike LaCoss 1-1 5.09 ERA 40 IP 26 K 82 ERA+ -0.2 WAR
2009 Juan Cruz 3-4 5.72 ERA 50 IP 38 K 78 ERA+ 0.0 WAR
Both had been pretty effective relievers earlier in their career, but were just terrible upon signing with the Royals as a free agent. Both struggled with command in their first season in Kansas City. LaCoss would be let go after the year, but would be fairly effective again.
1985 Steve Farr 2-1 3.11 ERA 37 IP 36 K 135 ERA+ 0.6 WAR
2009 Evan Meek 1-1 3.45 ERA 47 IP 42 K 120 ERA+ 0.3 WAR
Farr had bounced around the league, being discarded by the Pirates and Indians before the Royals turned him into an effective reliever. Meek was discarded by the Twins, Padres and Rays before the Pirates gave him a chance to sign in their pen. Farr was a more versatile pitcher – able to be a long reliever, spot starter or closer, while Meek seems to fit more as a setup reliever or closer.

In conclusion, I think it is clear that Dayton Moore is well on his way to re-creating the template that brought Kansas City its only World Championship. He is only missing four things:
1. A George Brett/Albert Pujols-caliber hitter
2. An outstanding rotation on par with Felix Hernandez/Cliff Lee/John Danks/Johnny Cueto/Joe Saunders
3. A rubber-armed throwback fireman reliever who doesn’t walk anyone and induces tons of ground balls
4. A time machine to bring 1985-style baseball to 2010
These are mere minor obstacles. Dayton has already assembled many of the same hitters and even similar relievers as the '85 club. A Plaza parade is only a matter of time. Trust the Process.


2 comments:
Nice work once again. Now dammit, get back to the top 100!
Brilliant!!! Very enjoyable.
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